THE MODI MIRAGE?

On the world stage, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP claim to have significantly improved India’s geopolitical standing.

Indian media frequently repeat this claim, and it is amplified by a sophisticated digital propaganda machine. But is it true?

Indians are highly concerned with their country's global reputation, so whether or not Modi has succeeded in this regard is of great importance as India embarks on the largest election in history.

This research tests the prevailing narrative from several angles, presenting stark new polling results and a synthesis of recent research by international institutions including Pew, Carnegie, GlobeScan and YouGov.

Polling conducted by the Pew Research Center in 2023 suggests that global audiences view India significantly less favourably under Modi than in the years before he came to power - especially in Europe.

In addition, according to YouGov polling from March 2024 in both the US and UK, Modi is neither well known nor popular overseas.

This polling shows that in the US and UK, Modi ranks below highly disliked figures such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, as well as lesser known former world leaders such as Brazil's Michael Temer, or Italy's Giuseppe Conte.

Indeed, many of have not heard of him at all. In the UK, only a third of people (35%) know who Modi is, and of those just 10 per cent view him favourably.

While half of Americans polled have heard of Modi and his favourability is somewhat higher at 22 per cent, he ranks 26th among world leaders in the US.

Meanwhile, new polling by GQR of British Indians also shows significant levels of disapproval and disillusionment in Modi's leadership.

• A majority (52%) of respondents hold an unfavourable view of Modi, compared to 35% who view him favourably.
• 54% of respondents think India is going in the wrong direction.
• Religious tensions and democratic restrictions weigh heavily among those unfavourable toward Modi, with 76% and 71% of respondents, respectively, deeming them very important.
• 65% of all respondents rate religious violence promoted by Modi spilling over to the UK as a top concern

So, what accounts for India's declining favourability and Modi's relatively poor global reputation? A new poll from GlobeScan offers insight.

There is a virtual consensus among experts that concerns for India's democracy and human rights under Modi are well founded. V-Dem now classifies India as an "elected autocracy" and Freedom House has downgraded it to "partially free". Press freedom is ranked 161st in the world by Reporters without Borders.

State machinery is being misused to oppress the opposition, as evidenced by a wave of arrests, Enforcement Directorate raids, and investigations opened against opposition leaders, while BJP own leaders enjoy total impunity. Twitter, X, and Apple have all sounded the alarm at illegitimate government abuse of their platforms. The BJP explains these facts as the result of an international conspiracy, but polling conducted by YouGov for Friends of Democracy shows that 80% of Indians are concerned for the health of their democracy.

At the same time, international concern over BJP’s dismantling of India’s vibrant democracy and reducing it to electoral autocracy has risen sharply.

The thesis that Modi has successfully deceived many about his accomplishments with the help of media coercion can be supported by looking at another key area of concern - the economy. Modi often speaks of reversing the economic "lost decade" before his premiership began in 2014. Yet figures from the World Bank and others suggest a far different picture. India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, with genuine progress made in addressing poverty and inequality in the past 20 years. But the idea of a dramatic change in its economic fortunes under Modi bears little scrutiny, as demonstrated by the graph below.